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Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Obama, Clinton tower over foes in shrinking field

Obama, Clinton tower over foes in shrinking fieldBy Dan Balz

The Washington Post

WASHINGTON — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., are rewriting the script of the 2008 Democratic presidential campaign, driving potential rivals to the sidelines and casting a huge shadow over all others.

What once shaped up as a sizable field of Democratic candidates is shrinking. Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., said Dec. 16 that he would not seek the nomination, a surprising decision that came days after he had witnessed the megawatt voltage of Obama's drawing power.
While Bayh drew small crowds on his seventh trip to New Hampshire, Obama enjoyed sold-out audiences and saturation coverage on his first.
Bayh became the third Democrat to quit the race before Clinton or Obama had taken formal steps to enter. Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner and Wisconsin Sen. Russell Feingold also have abandoned their bids.
"Simply put, it's the Obama factor," Democratic pollster Peter Hart said. "Obama's entry into the presidential race essentially raised the ante. Candidates who used to do careful exploration with the hope that they could catch fire in Iowa and New Hampshire and move from there recognize that there's no oxygen left out there for their candidacies."
While neither has announced for president, Clinton and Obama have demonstrated star power, fundraising capacity to raise tens of millions of dollars with relative ease and an ability to dominate media attention.
At this point, they are eclipsing a group of Democratic heavyweights that includes the party's 2004 presidential and vice-presidential nominees, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, and other senators and governors with notable résumés, from Sens. Joe Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut to Govs. Bill Richardson of New Mexico and Tom Vilsack of Iowa.
Only former Vice President Al Gore might be able to command the kind of attention Clinton and Obama receive, strategists said. But he has made no serious moves toward running.
Edwards plans to launch his campaign this week. Others are weighing when — or whether — to jump in.
Money is another factor that could make running more difficult for those in the shadow of Clinton and Obama.
Democratic strategists said the two celebrity senators will have no trouble attracting the biggest share of the party's best fundraisers and will bring in substantial funds online. That will put virtually everyone else at a big disadvantage.
This will be the first campaign in which all serious candidates for the nomination will opt out of the public-financing system, strategists in several campaigns said. That means candidates will pass up federal matching funds and will not be bound by spending limits in the nomination battle or restrictions on what can be spent in each state.
The freedom to spend freely comes with the difficult task of raising extraordinary sums; the campaign could necessitate raising $500,000 each week next year — or twice that. Some campaign teams talk about raising $100 million by March 2008.
"I think the money is the most daunting part of this, particularly if you are not a candidate who is going to excite the Internet world to raise money," said Steven Elmendorf, who was a top adviser to former Rep. Dick Gephardt when he sought the nomination in 2004. Elmendorf later joined Kerry's general-election campaign.
Democratic strategist Anita Dunn cautioned against assumptions that the Democratic race largely is going to be a contest among Clinton, Obama and Edwards, who leads the polls in Iowa.
"One of the reasons for elections is that you don't know at this point how things are going to play out," she said. "History teaches us that the front-runners usually win the nomination, but front-runners often stumble and that gives an opportunity to someone who is well-positioned."

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003492846_dems24.html?syndication=rss
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