Democrat Hillary Clinton versus Republican John McCain, Clinton beats McCain 50-44 percent, among registered voters. Democrat Barack Obama beats McCai
Democrat Hillary Clinton versus Republican John McCain, Clinton beats McCain 50-44 percent, among registered voters. Democrat Barack Obama beats McCain, 48-42 percent and Democrat John Edwards beats McCain 48-44 percent,
NEWSWEEK POLL: Bush Job Approval at All-Time Low: 30 PercentSaturday January 27, 11:16 am ET ---- Sixty-Seven Percent Believe Bush's Decisions Influenced More By His Personal Beliefs Regardless of the Facts; 71 Percent Say Bush Will Not Have Support to Get Things Done In Next Two Years ---- Eighty-Three Percent Say Bush Will Be Seen As Average or Below Average President
NEW YORK, Jan. 27 /PRNewswire/ -- President George W. Bush's standing with the public didn't improve after the State of the Union speech, according to the latest Newsweek Poll, taken in the days following the speech. The president's job approval rating hit an all-time low in the Newsweek Poll at 30 percent. Sixty-one percent of all those polled says they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time; just 30 percent are satisfied.
Sixty-seven percent of those polled believe Bush's decisions about policy in Iraq and other major areas are influenced more by his personal beliefs regardless of the facts, while just 22 percent say his decisions are influenced more by the facts. And 71 percent say Bush will not have enough support over the next two years to make a difference in getting things done in Washington; just 21 percent say he will. The public is split on whether or not Congress is likely (42%) or not likely (48%) to give serious consideration to the proposals Bush made in the State of the Union address about energy, health and other domestic policy.
Fifty-three percent of all those polled say they think history will see Bush as a below average president; 30 percent say average and 14 percent say above average. And 58 percent of all those polled say at this point in time, they personally wish that Bush's presidency was over; 37 percent do not feel that way.
In deciding whether to vote Democratic or Republican in the 2008 presidential election, among registered voters, 31 percent say their view of Bush will be very important; 17 percent say it will be somewhat important and 15 percent say not too important.
Looking ahead to the 2008 presidential election, 49 percent of registered voters say they'd rather see a Democrat elected as our next president in 2008; 28 percent say they'd rather see a Republican, the poll shows. And in potential match-ups, the top candidates still polled very closely among registered voters. With the margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, some of the match-ups are statistical dead heats.
In a potential match-up between Democrat Hillary Clinton versus Republican John McCain, Clinton beats McCain 50-44 percent, among registered voters. Democrat Barack Obama beats McCain, 48-42 percent and Democrat John Edwards beats McCain 48-44 percent, the poll shows. In match-ups between the Democratic candidates and Rudy Giuliani, the races are even closer: 49 percent chose Clinton v. 46 percent for Giuliani; 47 percent for Obama v. 44 percent for Giuliani; and 46 percent for Edwards v. 47 percent for Giuliani.
Clinton also does well against Republican Mitt Romney: 56 percent v. 37 percent, the poll shows. As do Obama (56% v. 30% for Romney) and Edwards (60% v. 26% for Romney). All results are among registered voters.
In choosing the Democratic presidential candidate, 55 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic leaners say they'd most like to see Clinton nominated; 35 percent say Obama. In a choice between Clinton and Edwards, 62 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic leaners say they'd most like to see Clinton nominated v. 29 percent who'd choose Edwards, the poll shows. If the choice were between Obama and Edwards, 46 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic leaners would choose Obama; 39 percent would choose Edwards.
On the Republican ticket, in a choice between McCain and Giuliani, 48 percent of registered Republicans and Republican leaners would like to see Giuliani nominated v. 44 percent who would choose McCain; between McCain and Romney: 69 percent for McCain v. 19 percent for Romney and between Giuliani and Romney, 72 percent for Giuliani and 17 percent for Romney, the poll shows.
For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,003 adults, aged 18 and over on January 24-25, 2007. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points. This poll is part of the February 5 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, January 29). To interview a Newsweek correspondent on the poll, contact Andrea Faville at 212-445-4859.
Newsweek Poll Bush and 2008 Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results (1/26/07)
N = 1,003 national adults, 18 and over Margin of error: plus or minus 4 Interviewing dates: 1/24-25/07
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR KEY SUBGROUPS:
272 Republicans (plus or minus 7) 347 Democrats (plus or minus 6) 335 Independents (plus or minus 6)
801 Those aware of State of the Union address (plus or minus 4)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
837 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
230 Republicans (plus or minus 8) 294 Democrats (plus or minus 7) 284 Independents (plus or minus 7)
332 Republicans/Republican leaners (plus or minus 6) 438 Democrats/Democratic leaners (plus or minus 7)
268 Approve of Bush's job performance (plus or minus 7) 522 Disapprove of Bush's job performance (plus or minus 6)
Notes: Data is weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region, and population density.
Reported sample sizes are unweighted and should not be used to compute percentages.
An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
1. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?
Satisfied Dissatisfied DK Current Total 30 61 9 =100 Trends(1) 1/17-18/07 30 62 8 =100 12/6-7/06 31 59 10 =100 11/9-10/06 29 63 8 =100 11/2-3/06 29 64 7 =100 10/26-27/06 31 61 8 =100 10/19-20/06 25 67 8 =100 10/5-6/06 Foley scandal 25 67 8 =100 8/24-25/06 28 65 7 =100 8/10-11/06 26 67 7 =100 5/11-12/06 NSA wiretapping 23 71 6 =100 3/16-17/06 30 64 6 =100 11/10-11/05 26 68 6 =100 9/29-30/05 31 61 8 =100 9/8-9/05 Hurricane Katrina 28 66 6 =100 8/2-4/05 36 54 10 =100 12/2-3/04 46 46 8 =100 10/27-29/04 39 56 5 =100 10/21-22/04 40 56 4 =100 10/14-15/04 40 55 5 =100 9/30-10/2/04 38 57 5 =100 9/9-10/04 39 53 8 =100 9/2-3/04 43 49 8 =100 7/29-30/04 36 58 6 =100 7/8-9/04 40 54 6 =100 5/13-14/04 Prisoner abuse scandal 30 62 8 =100 4/8-9/04 36 59 5 =100 1/22-23/04 43 52 5 =100 1/8-9/04 46 47 7 =100 12/18-19/03 Saddam's capture 46 47 7 =100 10/9-10/03 40 54 6 =100 4/03 Iraq War 50 41 9 =100 9/02 41 55 4 =100 7/02 46 46 8 =100 9/01 Terrorist attacks 57 34 9 =100 6/01 43 52 5 =100 1/01 55 41 4 =100 6/00 47 45 8 =100 8/99 56 39 5 =100 9/98 54 42 4 =100 1/97 38 58 4 =100 3/96 28 70 2 =100 6/95 25 73 2 =100 8/94 24 71 5 =100 6/92 Recession 14 84 2 =100 3/91 Gulf War Victory 66 31 3 =100 9/90 37 58 5 =100 9/88 56 40 4 =100 11/85 51 46 3 =100
(1) Trends from 4/03, 9/02, 6/00-6/01 and 6/95-8/99 from Pew Research Center; 11/85-6/92 from Gallup.
2. Now thinking ahead to the next PRESIDENTIAL election ... In general, would you rather see ... (RESPONSE CATEGORIES ROTATED) a Republican or a Democrat elected as our next president in 2008?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS Other Republican Democrat party(2) DK Current Total 28 49 3 20 =100
Republicans 78 4 * 18 =100 Democrats 3 90 0 7 =100 Independents 19 42 8 31 =100
Trends 1/17-18/07 28 49 4 19 =100 11/9-10/06 28 48 4 20 =100 5/11-12/06 32 49 2 17 =100
(2) Other party was a volunteered response category.
READ INTRO TO Q3ab-Q11ab TO ALL RVs: (RV1=1,3): Now I'm going to describe some different choices of candidates voters might have in the 2008 election for president. As I read each one, please tell me how you would vote if the election for president were being held TODAY. First ...
Order randomized for questions 3ab-11ab.
3a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Clinton McCain Undec./Other Current Total 50 44 6 =100
Republicans 9 87 4 =100 Democrats 86 12 2 =100 Independents 43 47 10 =100
Trends 1/17-18/07 48 47 5 =100 12/6-7/06 50 43 7 =100
4a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Obama McCain Undec./Other Current Total 48 42 10 =100
Republicans 9 86 5 =100 Democrats 78 14 8 =100 Independents 47 40 13 =100
Trends 1/17-18/07 46 44 10 =100 12/6-7/06 43 45 12 =100
5a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat; or McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Edwards McCain Undec./Other Current Total 48 44 8 =100
Republicans 10 86 4 =100 Democrats 82 13 5 =100 Independents 44 45 11 =100
Trend 1/17-18/07 48 43 9 =100
6a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Clinton Giuliani Undec./Other Current Total 49 46 5 =100
Republicans 9 88 3 =100 Democrats 85 12 3 =100 Independents 42 50 8 =100
Trends 1/17-18/07 47 48 5 =100 12/6-7/06 48 47 5 =100
7a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Obama Giuliani Undec./Other Current Total 47 44 9 =100
Republicans 7 87 6 =100 Democrats 78 15 7 =100 Independents 45 43 12 =100
Trends 1/17-18/07 45 47 8 =100 12/6-7/06 44 47 9 =100
8a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat; and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Edwards Giuliani Undec./Other Current Total 46 47 7 =100
Republicans 10 86 4 =100 Democrats 75 20 5 =100 Independents 44 46 10 =100
Trend 1/17-18/07 48 45 7 =100
9a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; and Mitt Romney, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Clinton Romney Undec./Other Current Total 56 37 7 =100
Republicans 16 76 8 =100 Democrats 92 6 2 =100 Independents 49 40 11 =100
Trend 12/6-7/06 58 32 10 =100
10a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat; and Mitt Romney, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Obama Romney Undec./Other Current Total 56 30 14 =100
Republicans 18 68 14 =100 Democrats 83 7 10 =100 Independents 56 26 18 =100
Trend 12/6-7/06 55 25 20 =100
11a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat; and Mitt Romney, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Edwards Romney Undec./Other Current Total 60 26 14 =100
Republicans 19 67 14 =100 Democrats 87 3 10 =100 Independents 64 22 14 =100
Questions D2/D2a asked here (results posted at end of document). Order randomized for questions 12ab-14ab.
12a/b. Suppose the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... Clinton or Obama?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
55 Total Clinton 35 Total Obama 10 Undecided/Other 100
13a/b. Suppose the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... Clinton or Edwards?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
62 Total Clinton 29 Total Edwards 9 Undecided/Other 100
14a/b. Suppose the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... Barack Obama and John Edwards. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... Obama or Edwards?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
46 Total Obama 39 Total Edwards 15 Undecided/Other 100
Order randomized for questions 15ab-17ab.
15a/b. Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... McCain or Giuliani?
BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
44 Total McCain 48 Total Giuliani 8 Undecided/Other 100
16a/b. Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... John McCain and Mitt Romney. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... McCain or Romney?
BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
69 Total McCain 19 Total Romney 12 Undecided/Other 100
17a/b. Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... Giuliani or Romney?
BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
72 Total Giuliani 17 Total Romney 11 Undecided/Other 100
18. On another subject ... Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
Approve Disapprove DK Current Total 30 64 6 =100 Trends(3) 1/17-18/07 31 62 7 =100 12/6-7/06 32 60 8 =100 11/9-10/06 31 63 6 =100 11/2-3/06 35 56 9 =100 10/26-27/06 37 53 10 =100 10/19-20/06 35 57 8 =100 10/5-6/06 33 59 8 =100 8/24-25/06 36 56 8 =100 8/10-11/06 38 55 7 =100 5/11-12/06 35 59 6 =100 3/16-17/06 36 58 6 =100 11/10-11/05 36 58 6 =100 9/29-30/05 40 53 7 =100 9/8-9/05 38 55 7 =100 8/2-4/05 42 51 7 =100 3/17-18/05 45 48 7 =100 2/3-4/05 50 42 8 =100 12/2-3/04 49 44 7 =100 10/27-29/04 46 47 7 =100 10/14-15/04 47 46 7 =100 9/30-10/2/04 46 48 6 =100 9/9-10/04 48 44 8 =100 9/2-3/04 52 41 7 =100 7/29-30/04 45 49 6 =100 7/8-9/04 48 46 6 =100 5/13-14/04 42 52 6 =100 4/8-9/04 49 45 6 =100 3/18-19/04 48 44 8 =100 2/19-20/04 48 44 8 =100 2/5-6/04 48 45 7 =100 1/22-23/04 50 44 6 =100 1/8-9/04 54 41 5 =100 12/18-19/03 54 38 8 =100 11/6-7/03 52 40 8 =100 10/9-10/03 51 42 7 =100 8/21-22/03 53 36 11 =100 7/10-11/03 55 37 8 =100 5/29-30/03 61 28 11 =100 5/1-2/03 65 26 9 =100 4/10-11/03 71 23 6 =100 3/27-28/03 68 26 6 =100 3/13-14/03 53 37 10 =100 1/16-17/03 56 33 11 =100 11/7-8/02 60 30 10 =100 6/27-28/02 70 19 11 =100 1/31-2/1/02 83 12 5 =100 9/13-14/01 82 11 7 =100 (8/25-9/5/01) 51 34 15 =100
(3) Full trendline from 1/04 to present; earlier trends selected. Approval figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research Center.
Lowest Approval Ratings for Past Presidents
President % Approve Clinton 36 5/26-27/93 Newsweek G.H.W. Bush 29 7/31-8/2/92 Gallup Reagan 35 1/28-31/83 Gallup Carter 28 6/29-7/2/79 Gallup Ford 37 1/10-13/75 & 3/28-31/75 Gallup Nixon 23 1/4-7/74 Gallup Johnson 35 8/7-12/68 Gallup Kennedy 56 9/12-17/63 Gallup Eisenhower 48 3/27-4/1/58 Gallup Truman 22 2/9-14/52 Gallup Roosevelt 48 8/18-24/39 Gallup
Source: The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research iPoll database.
19. As time passes, how do you think history will see George W. Bush as president? Do you think Bush will be seen as an average president, above average, or below average?
Current 5/11-12/06 9/29-30/05 9/8-9/05 10/9-10/03
30 Average 32 35 35 40 14 Above average 16 19 19 29 53 Below average 50 43 42 26 3 Don't know 2 3 4 5 100 100 100 100 100
20. How important will your view of George W. Bush be in deciding whether to vote Democratic or Republican in the 2008 presidential election? Will it be...(READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Bush-Appr Bush-Disappr 31 Very important 23 37 17 Somewhat important 21 16 15 Not too important, OR 16 14 32 Not at all important? 37 29 5 Don't know 3 4 100 100 100
21a. On Tuesday night, did you happen to see or hear any of President Bush's nationally televised State of the Union address?
21b. [If didn't see address live] Did you happen to see, read or hear anything about it afterward?
74 Total Aware 49 Saw/heard address live 25 Exposed to coverage of address but didn't see live 26 Not aware/Don't know 100
22. Thinking about the proposals Bush made in his address about energy, health care, and other domestic policy ... Do you think Congress is likely or is not likely to give these proposals serious consideration?
BASED ON THOSE AWARE OF STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
42 Likely 48 Not likely 10 Don't know 100
23. In general, do you think George W. Bush will have enough support over the next two years to make a difference in getting things done in Washington, or not?
Total Rep Dem Ind 21 Yes, will 34 13 20 71 No, will not 57 81 74 8 Don't know 9 6 6 100 100 100 100
24. Do you think President Bush's decisions about policy in Iraq and other major areas are influenced more by the facts or more by his personal beliefs, regardless of the facts?
Total Rep Dem Ind 22 Influenced more by the facts 45 6 20 67 Influenced more by personal beliefs 42 86 70 11 Don't know 13 8 10 100 100 100 100
25. Since the Iraq war began, do you think Congress has been assertive enough in challenging the Bush administration's conduct of the war, or has not been assertive enough?
Total Rep Dem Ind 27 Assertive enough 54 8 27 64 Not assertive enough 31 87 69 9 Don't know/Refused 15 5 4 100 100 100 100
26. At this point in time, do you personally wish that George W. Bush's presidency was over, or don't you feel this way?
Total Rep Dem Ind 58 Yes, wish it was over 21 86 59 37 No, do not 75 12 36 5 Don't know/Refused 4 2 5 100 100 100 100
D2. Regardless of how you might have voted in recent elections, in politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
D2a. As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
Total RVs 26 Republican 26 37 Democrat 37 34 Independent 34 1 No party/Not interested in politics (VOL.) 1 * Other party (VOL.) * 2 Don't know/Refused 2 100 100
37 Total Republican/Lean Republican 37 55 Total Democrat/Lean Democratic 55
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank you very much for your cooperation.
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NEWSWEEK POLL: Bush Job Approval at All-Time Low: 30 PercentSaturday January 27, 11:16 am ET ---- Sixty-Seven Percent Believe Bush's Decisions Influenced More By His Personal Beliefs Regardless of the Facts; 71 Percent Say Bush Will Not Have Support to Get Things Done In Next Two Years ---- Eighty-Three Percent Say Bush Will Be Seen As Average or Below Average President
NEW YORK, Jan. 27 /PRNewswire/ -- President George W. Bush's standing with the public didn't improve after the State of the Union speech, according to the latest Newsweek Poll, taken in the days following the speech. The president's job approval rating hit an all-time low in the Newsweek Poll at 30 percent. Sixty-one percent of all those polled says they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time; just 30 percent are satisfied.
Sixty-seven percent of those polled believe Bush's decisions about policy in Iraq and other major areas are influenced more by his personal beliefs regardless of the facts, while just 22 percent say his decisions are influenced more by the facts. And 71 percent say Bush will not have enough support over the next two years to make a difference in getting things done in Washington; just 21 percent say he will. The public is split on whether or not Congress is likely (42%) or not likely (48%) to give serious consideration to the proposals Bush made in the State of the Union address about energy, health and other domestic policy.
Fifty-three percent of all those polled say they think history will see Bush as a below average president; 30 percent say average and 14 percent say above average. And 58 percent of all those polled say at this point in time, they personally wish that Bush's presidency was over; 37 percent do not feel that way.
In deciding whether to vote Democratic or Republican in the 2008 presidential election, among registered voters, 31 percent say their view of Bush will be very important; 17 percent say it will be somewhat important and 15 percent say not too important.
Looking ahead to the 2008 presidential election, 49 percent of registered voters say they'd rather see a Democrat elected as our next president in 2008; 28 percent say they'd rather see a Republican, the poll shows. And in potential match-ups, the top candidates still polled very closely among registered voters. With the margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, some of the match-ups are statistical dead heats.
In a potential match-up between Democrat Hillary Clinton versus Republican John McCain, Clinton beats McCain 50-44 percent, among registered voters. Democrat Barack Obama beats McCain, 48-42 percent and Democrat John Edwards beats McCain 48-44 percent, the poll shows. In match-ups between the Democratic candidates and Rudy Giuliani, the races are even closer: 49 percent chose Clinton v. 46 percent for Giuliani; 47 percent for Obama v. 44 percent for Giuliani; and 46 percent for Edwards v. 47 percent for Giuliani.
Clinton also does well against Republican Mitt Romney: 56 percent v. 37 percent, the poll shows. As do Obama (56% v. 30% for Romney) and Edwards (60% v. 26% for Romney). All results are among registered voters.
In choosing the Democratic presidential candidate, 55 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic leaners say they'd most like to see Clinton nominated; 35 percent say Obama. In a choice between Clinton and Edwards, 62 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic leaners say they'd most like to see Clinton nominated v. 29 percent who'd choose Edwards, the poll shows. If the choice were between Obama and Edwards, 46 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic leaners would choose Obama; 39 percent would choose Edwards.
On the Republican ticket, in a choice between McCain and Giuliani, 48 percent of registered Republicans and Republican leaners would like to see Giuliani nominated v. 44 percent who would choose McCain; between McCain and Romney: 69 percent for McCain v. 19 percent for Romney and between Giuliani and Romney, 72 percent for Giuliani and 17 percent for Romney, the poll shows.
For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,003 adults, aged 18 and over on January 24-25, 2007. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points. This poll is part of the February 5 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, January 29). To interview a Newsweek correspondent on the poll, contact Andrea Faville at 212-445-4859.
Newsweek Poll Bush and 2008 Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results (1/26/07)
N = 1,003 national adults, 18 and over Margin of error: plus or minus 4 Interviewing dates: 1/24-25/07
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR KEY SUBGROUPS:
272 Republicans (plus or minus 7) 347 Democrats (plus or minus 6) 335 Independents (plus or minus 6)
801 Those aware of State of the Union address (plus or minus 4)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
837 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
230 Republicans (plus or minus 8) 294 Democrats (plus or minus 7) 284 Independents (plus or minus 7)
332 Republicans/Republican leaners (plus or minus 6) 438 Democrats/Democratic leaners (plus or minus 7)
268 Approve of Bush's job performance (plus or minus 7) 522 Disapprove of Bush's job performance (plus or minus 6)
Notes: Data is weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region, and population density.
Reported sample sizes are unweighted and should not be used to compute percentages.
An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
1. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?
Satisfied Dissatisfied DK Current Total 30 61 9 =100 Trends(1) 1/17-18/07 30 62 8 =100 12/6-7/06 31 59 10 =100 11/9-10/06 29 63 8 =100 11/2-3/06 29 64 7 =100 10/26-27/06 31 61 8 =100 10/19-20/06 25 67 8 =100 10/5-6/06 Foley scandal 25 67 8 =100 8/24-25/06 28 65 7 =100 8/10-11/06 26 67 7 =100 5/11-12/06 NSA wiretapping 23 71 6 =100 3/16-17/06 30 64 6 =100 11/10-11/05 26 68 6 =100 9/29-30/05 31 61 8 =100 9/8-9/05 Hurricane Katrina 28 66 6 =100 8/2-4/05 36 54 10 =100 12/2-3/04 46 46 8 =100 10/27-29/04 39 56 5 =100 10/21-22/04 40 56 4 =100 10/14-15/04 40 55 5 =100 9/30-10/2/04 38 57 5 =100 9/9-10/04 39 53 8 =100 9/2-3/04 43 49 8 =100 7/29-30/04 36 58 6 =100 7/8-9/04 40 54 6 =100 5/13-14/04 Prisoner abuse scandal 30 62 8 =100 4/8-9/04 36 59 5 =100 1/22-23/04 43 52 5 =100 1/8-9/04 46 47 7 =100 12/18-19/03 Saddam's capture 46 47 7 =100 10/9-10/03 40 54 6 =100 4/03 Iraq War 50 41 9 =100 9/02 41 55 4 =100 7/02 46 46 8 =100 9/01 Terrorist attacks 57 34 9 =100 6/01 43 52 5 =100 1/01 55 41 4 =100 6/00 47 45 8 =100 8/99 56 39 5 =100 9/98 54 42 4 =100 1/97 38 58 4 =100 3/96 28 70 2 =100 6/95 25 73 2 =100 8/94 24 71 5 =100 6/92 Recession 14 84 2 =100 3/91 Gulf War Victory 66 31 3 =100 9/90 37 58 5 =100 9/88 56 40 4 =100 11/85 51 46 3 =100
(1) Trends from 4/03, 9/02, 6/00-6/01 and 6/95-8/99 from Pew Research Center; 11/85-6/92 from Gallup.
2. Now thinking ahead to the next PRESIDENTIAL election ... In general, would you rather see ... (RESPONSE CATEGORIES ROTATED) a Republican or a Democrat elected as our next president in 2008?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS Other Republican Democrat party(2) DK Current Total 28 49 3 20 =100
Republicans 78 4 * 18 =100 Democrats 3 90 0 7 =100 Independents 19 42 8 31 =100
Trends 1/17-18/07 28 49 4 19 =100 11/9-10/06 28 48 4 20 =100 5/11-12/06 32 49 2 17 =100
(2) Other party was a volunteered response category.
READ INTRO TO Q3ab-Q11ab TO ALL RVs: (RV1=1,3): Now I'm going to describe some different choices of candidates voters might have in the 2008 election for president. As I read each one, please tell me how you would vote if the election for president were being held TODAY. First ...
Order randomized for questions 3ab-11ab.
3a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Clinton McCain Undec./Other Current Total 50 44 6 =100
Republicans 9 87 4 =100 Democrats 86 12 2 =100 Independents 43 47 10 =100
Trends 1/17-18/07 48 47 5 =100 12/6-7/06 50 43 7 =100
4a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Obama McCain Undec./Other Current Total 48 42 10 =100
Republicans 9 86 5 =100 Democrats 78 14 8 =100 Independents 47 40 13 =100
Trends 1/17-18/07 46 44 10 =100 12/6-7/06 43 45 12 =100
5a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat; or McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Edwards McCain Undec./Other Current Total 48 44 8 =100
Republicans 10 86 4 =100 Democrats 82 13 5 =100 Independents 44 45 11 =100
Trend 1/17-18/07 48 43 9 =100
6a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Clinton Giuliani Undec./Other Current Total 49 46 5 =100
Republicans 9 88 3 =100 Democrats 85 12 3 =100 Independents 42 50 8 =100
Trends 1/17-18/07 47 48 5 =100 12/6-7/06 48 47 5 =100
7a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Obama Giuliani Undec./Other Current Total 47 44 9 =100
Republicans 7 87 6 =100 Democrats 78 15 7 =100 Independents 45 43 12 =100
Trends 1/17-18/07 45 47 8 =100 12/6-7/06 44 47 9 =100
8a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat; and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Edwards Giuliani Undec./Other Current Total 46 47 7 =100
Republicans 10 86 4 =100 Democrats 75 20 5 =100 Independents 44 46 10 =100
Trend 1/17-18/07 48 45 7 =100
9a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; and Mitt Romney, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Clinton Romney Undec./Other Current Total 56 37 7 =100
Republicans 16 76 8 =100 Democrats 92 6 2 =100 Independents 49 40 11 =100
Trend 12/6-7/06 58 32 10 =100
10a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat; and Mitt Romney, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Obama Romney Undec./Other Current Total 56 30 14 =100
Republicans 18 68 14 =100 Democrats 83 7 10 =100 Independents 56 26 18 =100
Trend 12/6-7/06 55 25 20 =100
11a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat; and Mitt Romney, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Edwards Romney Undec./Other Current Total 60 26 14 =100
Republicans 19 67 14 =100 Democrats 87 3 10 =100 Independents 64 22 14 =100
Questions D2/D2a asked here (results posted at end of document). Order randomized for questions 12ab-14ab.
12a/b. Suppose the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... Clinton or Obama?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
55 Total Clinton 35 Total Obama 10 Undecided/Other 100
13a/b. Suppose the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... Clinton or Edwards?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
62 Total Clinton 29 Total Edwards 9 Undecided/Other 100
14a/b. Suppose the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... Barack Obama and John Edwards. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... Obama or Edwards?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
46 Total Obama 39 Total Edwards 15 Undecided/Other 100
Order randomized for questions 15ab-17ab.
15a/b. Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... McCain or Giuliani?
BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
44 Total McCain 48 Total Giuliani 8 Undecided/Other 100
16a/b. Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... John McCain and Mitt Romney. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... McCain or Romney?
BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
69 Total McCain 19 Total Romney 12 Undecided/Other 100
17a/b. Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... Giuliani or Romney?
BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
72 Total Giuliani 17 Total Romney 11 Undecided/Other 100
18. On another subject ... Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
Approve Disapprove DK Current Total 30 64 6 =100 Trends(3) 1/17-18/07 31 62 7 =100 12/6-7/06 32 60 8 =100 11/9-10/06 31 63 6 =100 11/2-3/06 35 56 9 =100 10/26-27/06 37 53 10 =100 10/19-20/06 35 57 8 =100 10/5-6/06 33 59 8 =100 8/24-25/06 36 56 8 =100 8/10-11/06 38 55 7 =100 5/11-12/06 35 59 6 =100 3/16-17/06 36 58 6 =100 11/10-11/05 36 58 6 =100 9/29-30/05 40 53 7 =100 9/8-9/05 38 55 7 =100 8/2-4/05 42 51 7 =100 3/17-18/05 45 48 7 =100 2/3-4/05 50 42 8 =100 12/2-3/04 49 44 7 =100 10/27-29/04 46 47 7 =100 10/14-15/04 47 46 7 =100 9/30-10/2/04 46 48 6 =100 9/9-10/04 48 44 8 =100 9/2-3/04 52 41 7 =100 7/29-30/04 45 49 6 =100 7/8-9/04 48 46 6 =100 5/13-14/04 42 52 6 =100 4/8-9/04 49 45 6 =100 3/18-19/04 48 44 8 =100 2/19-20/04 48 44 8 =100 2/5-6/04 48 45 7 =100 1/22-23/04 50 44 6 =100 1/8-9/04 54 41 5 =100 12/18-19/03 54 38 8 =100 11/6-7/03 52 40 8 =100 10/9-10/03 51 42 7 =100 8/21-22/03 53 36 11 =100 7/10-11/03 55 37 8 =100 5/29-30/03 61 28 11 =100 5/1-2/03 65 26 9 =100 4/10-11/03 71 23 6 =100 3/27-28/03 68 26 6 =100 3/13-14/03 53 37 10 =100 1/16-17/03 56 33 11 =100 11/7-8/02 60 30 10 =100 6/27-28/02 70 19 11 =100 1/31-2/1/02 83 12 5 =100 9/13-14/01 82 11 7 =100 (8/25-9/5/01) 51 34 15 =100
(3) Full trendline from 1/04 to present; earlier trends selected. Approval figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research Center.
Lowest Approval Ratings for Past Presidents
President % Approve Clinton 36 5/26-27/93 Newsweek G.H.W. Bush 29 7/31-8/2/92 Gallup Reagan 35 1/28-31/83 Gallup Carter 28 6/29-7/2/79 Gallup Ford 37 1/10-13/75 & 3/28-31/75 Gallup Nixon 23 1/4-7/74 Gallup Johnson 35 8/7-12/68 Gallup Kennedy 56 9/12-17/63 Gallup Eisenhower 48 3/27-4/1/58 Gallup Truman 22 2/9-14/52 Gallup Roosevelt 48 8/18-24/39 Gallup
Source: The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research iPoll database.
19. As time passes, how do you think history will see George W. Bush as president? Do you think Bush will be seen as an average president, above average, or below average?
Current 5/11-12/06 9/29-30/05 9/8-9/05 10/9-10/03
30 Average 32 35 35 40 14 Above average 16 19 19 29 53 Below average 50 43 42 26 3 Don't know 2 3 4 5 100 100 100 100 100
20. How important will your view of George W. Bush be in deciding whether to vote Democratic or Republican in the 2008 presidential election? Will it be...(READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Bush-Appr Bush-Disappr 31 Very important 23 37 17 Somewhat important 21 16 15 Not too important, OR 16 14 32 Not at all important? 37 29 5 Don't know 3 4 100 100 100
21a. On Tuesday night, did you happen to see or hear any of President Bush's nationally televised State of the Union address?
21b. [If didn't see address live] Did you happen to see, read or hear anything about it afterward?
74 Total Aware 49 Saw/heard address live 25 Exposed to coverage of address but didn't see live 26 Not aware/Don't know 100
22. Thinking about the proposals Bush made in his address about energy, health care, and other domestic policy ... Do you think Congress is likely or is not likely to give these proposals serious consideration?
BASED ON THOSE AWARE OF STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
42 Likely 48 Not likely 10 Don't know 100
23. In general, do you think George W. Bush will have enough support over the next two years to make a difference in getting things done in Washington, or not?
Total Rep Dem Ind 21 Yes, will 34 13 20 71 No, will not 57 81 74 8 Don't know 9 6 6 100 100 100 100
24. Do you think President Bush's decisions about policy in Iraq and other major areas are influenced more by the facts or more by his personal beliefs, regardless of the facts?
Total Rep Dem Ind 22 Influenced more by the facts 45 6 20 67 Influenced more by personal beliefs 42 86 70 11 Don't know 13 8 10 100 100 100 100
25. Since the Iraq war began, do you think Congress has been assertive enough in challenging the Bush administration's conduct of the war, or has not been assertive enough?
Total Rep Dem Ind 27 Assertive enough 54 8 27 64 Not assertive enough 31 87 69 9 Don't know/Refused 15 5 4 100 100 100 100
26. At this point in time, do you personally wish that George W. Bush's presidency was over, or don't you feel this way?
Total Rep Dem Ind 58 Yes, wish it was over 21 86 59 37 No, do not 75 12 36 5 Don't know/Refused 4 2 5 100 100 100 100
D2. Regardless of how you might have voted in recent elections, in politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
D2a. As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
Total RVs 26 Republican 26 37 Democrat 37 34 Independent 34 1 No party/Not interested in politics (VOL.) 1 * Other party (VOL.) * 2 Don't know/Refused 2 100 100
37 Total Republican/Lean Republican 37 55 Total Democrat/Lean Democratic 55
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank you very much for your cooperation.
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posted by presgore19 at 5:51 PM
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