Expect ’08 race to take shape, Al gore 2008 , edwards obama Hillary
Expect ’08 race to take shape
From staff reportsSpecial to The Reporter Page 1 of 3 Next Single-Page View
Published January 1, 2007
TUSCALOOSA — Two of the best known presidential candidate hopefuls will drop out during the coming year, and the use of blogs will help influence the choice of the Democratic Party candidate, predicts David Lanoue, chairman of the University of Alabama’s political science department.
His predictions are part of “Educated Guesses,” made each new year by educators at the university. Last year’s guesses included re-election for Gov. Bob Riley and gas prices continued above $2 per gallon.
He predicts two of the four current “frontrunners” for the job — Sens. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., Barack Obama, D-Ill., and John McCain, R-Ariz., and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, a Republican — will drop out of the race or decide against entering it.
“My guess is that those two will be Obama and Giuliani, but anything is possible,” Lanoue said.
He believes Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will continue to gain momentum and officially throw his hat in the ring. “Romney’s stock will rise significantly over the year, and he will become the leading contender from the Republican right,” Lanoue added.
“The left-wing blogosphere ‘netroots’ will begin to coalesce around a more left-of-center Democratic challenger,” Lanoue predicted, “with retired General Wesley Clark and former Senator John Edwards two strong possibilities — and Al Gore a dark horse prospect. John Kerry will test the waters, find them uninviting, and decide not to run this time around.”
Sales of hybrids, diesels to improve
The automotive market will see an increase in sales of both hybrid and diesel fueled engines in 2007, with hybrid engines outselling diesels, predicts a University of Alabama engineering professor.
He also predicts automotive makers, such as Ford and General Motors, will begin a “rebuilding season,” after years of being hurt by foreign car manufacturers.
Fueled by gas price worries, the popularity of hybrid vehicles will continue to climb because of their greater availability, as compared to diesel engines, said Clark Midkiff, professor of mechanical engineering and director of UA’s Center for Advanced Vehicle Technologies.
“Sales of hybrids will continue to increase in 2007, even though diesel engines are the most fuel efficient on the open road,” he said. Hybrids are more fuel efficient than gasoline engines in that they excel in stop-and-go city traffic.
Midkiff predicts an increase in diesel engines in years to come, which will balance the market between hybrids and diesels.
“The U.S. has passed stricter emissions rules that diesel technology is just now being able to overcome,” Midkiff said. “The diesel engine is increasing in popularity because it is 30 percent more fuel efficient than similar sized gasoline cars.”
“Americans are finally becoming aware that diesel engines aren’t just for 18-wheelers anymore,” said Midkiff. “Americans’ perceptions of the diesel are still distorted by the infamous 1978 GM diesel.”
The Big Three American car manufacturers have been hurt by higher fuel prices as they made much of their profit from sales of sport utility vehicles. However, they will make a dramatic comeback, as Midkiff predicts they will produce more hybrid and diesel options.
Automakers will also produce popular and profitable smaller cars in efforts to reduce their financial dependence on SUVs and trucks. The success of this “rebuilding” will depend, Midkiff said, on fluctuating gas prices and vehicle changes.
“Even though recent surveys have highlighted quality gains in both new cars and SUVs, such as the Ford Fusion, Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon, the survival of these large U.S. automotive manufacturing industries hinges on how quickly the product is improved versus how rapidly gas prices increase,” Midkiff said.
Major changes for
No Child Left Behind
Congressional hearings and subsequent reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind Act will produce major changes in the act in 2007, predicts Stephen Katsinas, a University of Alabama education policy expert.
“Democrats are concerned about being shortchanged by some $30 billion since 2001 in funding, while many Republicans from rural states are concerned about a ‘one size fits all’ approach to implementing testing programs,” said Katsinsas, director of the Education Policy Center in the College of Education at UA.
On the college level, Katsinas predicts that, after two years of unsuccessful tries, Congress will reauthorize the Higher Education Act.
U.S. troop levels
in Iraq fall
Strategies and options for the United States’ involvement in Iraq abound from many sources, but the reduction in the number of troops will be the option that is implemented in 2007, in part with the “help” of Iran, said Doug Gibler, assistant professor of political science at the University of Alabama.
“Iran will play a major role in the draw down of U.S. troops in Iraq,” Gibler said. “Iran is positioning itself to become the dominant regional power in the Middle East, and at the same time the United States finds itself unable to retract itself from what is becoming a nasty civil war. Much of the insurgency seems to be driven by Iranian support, and it seems likely that the United States will have to reach some sort of power-sharing arrangement with Iran in order to remove troops from the region.”
Gibler, who is an expert on Iraq and international political issues, added, “U.S. bases will be maintained, but a significant number of troops will be withdrawn, much of the insurgency will be cooled following the withdrawal, and Iran’s status will improve greatly immediately following the move.”
Newspapers continue shift to Internet
In 2007 and years to come, more and more of us will read our morning newspaper on a Web site before we read it on the printed page, a University of Alabama communication expert predicts.
Continued on Page 3 »
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------The newspaper of the future will be more closely linked to an electronic Web site, predicts Bill Keller, assistant to the dean for journalism administration in the UA College of Communication and Information Sciences.
Keller, an Albertville native and former editor of The Reporter, said newspapers will continue providing reliable news that consumers want, whether in print or on a Web site, because they offer information sifted through the editing process — a process not found on blogs and some Web sites that purport to offer news.
“Publishers and editors know that they must find ways to continue to reach readers of the printed page as well as to attract readers who may read news only on the Internet,” Keller said.
Keller sees newspapers relying on tried-and-true processes to keep their audience for future generations.
“The editing process used to separate rumor from fact and to separate innuendo from an accurate charge provides newspapers their strongest asset,” he said.
Prices could
remain steady
In 2007, the price of oil will stay around $60 a barrel, if there are no major upsets in the world, a University of Alabama engineering professor predicts.
“Anything that threatens the oil supply will drive the price up above $60 even though there may not be a real shortfall in oil supplies,” explained Peter Clark, associate professor of chemical and biological engineering at UA.
“Gasoline will increase in price in the late winter and early spring as the refineries shut down for maintenance. This normally results in a decrease in gasoline supplies and a short-term increase in gasoline price,” said Clark.
Clark said, assuming the world energy supplies remain stable, the price will begin to decline in late spring and early summer.
“The price of natural gas, and thus home heating cost, will depend upon the severity of the winter,” he said. “A cold winter will bring about an increase in the price while a warm winter, such as the one we had last year, will result in a price decrease.”
In addition, Clark warned, “Without major investments in offshore drilling and liquefied natural gas terminals, the long-term outlook for natural gas supplies is not good. This will be reflected in a steady increase in the price of natural gas over the next few years.”
Political fighting could continue
While the federal government will work together, at least in early 2007, Alabama politics won’t be as friendly.
“Back home, however, Governor Bob Riley will face more acrimonious relations with the Democrats in the state Legislature, and the Legislature itself will be wracked with significant intra- and inter-party battles,” Lanoue said.
“The Democrats, interpreting the 2006 elections as something of a victory, at least compared to their showing in recent years, will be more emboldened in their willingness to do battle with the governor,” Lanoue added.
“Lieutenant Governor [Jim] Folsom will be a much more visible player in day-to-day politics than was his predecessor, Lucy Baxley,” Lanoue said. “The new lieutenant governor will be positioning himself for a run at the top job in 2010. On the Republican side, Attorney General Troy King will attempt to keep his own name in the news for the same reasons.”
Bush’s approval rises
President Bush’s approval rate will rise as he orders a decrease of troops in Iraq, Lanoue predicts.
“By mid-2007, President Bush will start seriously considering, and possibly implementing, a reduction of U.S. ground forces in Iraq. This, combined with public acknowledgment of a stronger economy, will improve Bush’s job approval ratings, and they will generally exceed 40 percent by late 2007,” he said.
Good relations with Congress early in the year will also help his ratings, but that bipartisan concord will not last long.
http://www.sandmountainreporter.com/story.lasso?ewcd=94dd684276bc503e&page=all
From staff reportsSpecial to The Reporter Page 1 of 3 Next Single-Page View
Published January 1, 2007
TUSCALOOSA — Two of the best known presidential candidate hopefuls will drop out during the coming year, and the use of blogs will help influence the choice of the Democratic Party candidate, predicts David Lanoue, chairman of the University of Alabama’s political science department.
His predictions are part of “Educated Guesses,” made each new year by educators at the university. Last year’s guesses included re-election for Gov. Bob Riley and gas prices continued above $2 per gallon.
He predicts two of the four current “frontrunners” for the job — Sens. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., Barack Obama, D-Ill., and John McCain, R-Ariz., and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, a Republican — will drop out of the race or decide against entering it.
“My guess is that those two will be Obama and Giuliani, but anything is possible,” Lanoue said.
He believes Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will continue to gain momentum and officially throw his hat in the ring. “Romney’s stock will rise significantly over the year, and he will become the leading contender from the Republican right,” Lanoue added.
“The left-wing blogosphere ‘netroots’ will begin to coalesce around a more left-of-center Democratic challenger,” Lanoue predicted, “with retired General Wesley Clark and former Senator John Edwards two strong possibilities — and Al Gore a dark horse prospect. John Kerry will test the waters, find them uninviting, and decide not to run this time around.”
Sales of hybrids, diesels to improve
The automotive market will see an increase in sales of both hybrid and diesel fueled engines in 2007, with hybrid engines outselling diesels, predicts a University of Alabama engineering professor.
He also predicts automotive makers, such as Ford and General Motors, will begin a “rebuilding season,” after years of being hurt by foreign car manufacturers.
Fueled by gas price worries, the popularity of hybrid vehicles will continue to climb because of their greater availability, as compared to diesel engines, said Clark Midkiff, professor of mechanical engineering and director of UA’s Center for Advanced Vehicle Technologies.
“Sales of hybrids will continue to increase in 2007, even though diesel engines are the most fuel efficient on the open road,” he said. Hybrids are more fuel efficient than gasoline engines in that they excel in stop-and-go city traffic.
Midkiff predicts an increase in diesel engines in years to come, which will balance the market between hybrids and diesels.
“The U.S. has passed stricter emissions rules that diesel technology is just now being able to overcome,” Midkiff said. “The diesel engine is increasing in popularity because it is 30 percent more fuel efficient than similar sized gasoline cars.”
“Americans are finally becoming aware that diesel engines aren’t just for 18-wheelers anymore,” said Midkiff. “Americans’ perceptions of the diesel are still distorted by the infamous 1978 GM diesel.”
The Big Three American car manufacturers have been hurt by higher fuel prices as they made much of their profit from sales of sport utility vehicles. However, they will make a dramatic comeback, as Midkiff predicts they will produce more hybrid and diesel options.
Automakers will also produce popular and profitable smaller cars in efforts to reduce their financial dependence on SUVs and trucks. The success of this “rebuilding” will depend, Midkiff said, on fluctuating gas prices and vehicle changes.
“Even though recent surveys have highlighted quality gains in both new cars and SUVs, such as the Ford Fusion, Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon, the survival of these large U.S. automotive manufacturing industries hinges on how quickly the product is improved versus how rapidly gas prices increase,” Midkiff said.
Major changes for
No Child Left Behind
Congressional hearings and subsequent reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind Act will produce major changes in the act in 2007, predicts Stephen Katsinas, a University of Alabama education policy expert.
“Democrats are concerned about being shortchanged by some $30 billion since 2001 in funding, while many Republicans from rural states are concerned about a ‘one size fits all’ approach to implementing testing programs,” said Katsinsas, director of the Education Policy Center in the College of Education at UA.
On the college level, Katsinas predicts that, after two years of unsuccessful tries, Congress will reauthorize the Higher Education Act.
U.S. troop levels
in Iraq fall
Strategies and options for the United States’ involvement in Iraq abound from many sources, but the reduction in the number of troops will be the option that is implemented in 2007, in part with the “help” of Iran, said Doug Gibler, assistant professor of political science at the University of Alabama.
“Iran will play a major role in the draw down of U.S. troops in Iraq,” Gibler said. “Iran is positioning itself to become the dominant regional power in the Middle East, and at the same time the United States finds itself unable to retract itself from what is becoming a nasty civil war. Much of the insurgency seems to be driven by Iranian support, and it seems likely that the United States will have to reach some sort of power-sharing arrangement with Iran in order to remove troops from the region.”
Gibler, who is an expert on Iraq and international political issues, added, “U.S. bases will be maintained, but a significant number of troops will be withdrawn, much of the insurgency will be cooled following the withdrawal, and Iran’s status will improve greatly immediately following the move.”
Newspapers continue shift to Internet
In 2007 and years to come, more and more of us will read our morning newspaper on a Web site before we read it on the printed page, a University of Alabama communication expert predicts.
Continued on Page 3 »
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------The newspaper of the future will be more closely linked to an electronic Web site, predicts Bill Keller, assistant to the dean for journalism administration in the UA College of Communication and Information Sciences.
Keller, an Albertville native and former editor of The Reporter, said newspapers will continue providing reliable news that consumers want, whether in print or on a Web site, because they offer information sifted through the editing process — a process not found on blogs and some Web sites that purport to offer news.
“Publishers and editors know that they must find ways to continue to reach readers of the printed page as well as to attract readers who may read news only on the Internet,” Keller said.
Keller sees newspapers relying on tried-and-true processes to keep their audience for future generations.
“The editing process used to separate rumor from fact and to separate innuendo from an accurate charge provides newspapers their strongest asset,” he said.
Prices could
remain steady
In 2007, the price of oil will stay around $60 a barrel, if there are no major upsets in the world, a University of Alabama engineering professor predicts.
“Anything that threatens the oil supply will drive the price up above $60 even though there may not be a real shortfall in oil supplies,” explained Peter Clark, associate professor of chemical and biological engineering at UA.
“Gasoline will increase in price in the late winter and early spring as the refineries shut down for maintenance. This normally results in a decrease in gasoline supplies and a short-term increase in gasoline price,” said Clark.
Clark said, assuming the world energy supplies remain stable, the price will begin to decline in late spring and early summer.
“The price of natural gas, and thus home heating cost, will depend upon the severity of the winter,” he said. “A cold winter will bring about an increase in the price while a warm winter, such as the one we had last year, will result in a price decrease.”
In addition, Clark warned, “Without major investments in offshore drilling and liquefied natural gas terminals, the long-term outlook for natural gas supplies is not good. This will be reflected in a steady increase in the price of natural gas over the next few years.”
Political fighting could continue
While the federal government will work together, at least in early 2007, Alabama politics won’t be as friendly.
“Back home, however, Governor Bob Riley will face more acrimonious relations with the Democrats in the state Legislature, and the Legislature itself will be wracked with significant intra- and inter-party battles,” Lanoue said.
“The Democrats, interpreting the 2006 elections as something of a victory, at least compared to their showing in recent years, will be more emboldened in their willingness to do battle with the governor,” Lanoue added.
“Lieutenant Governor [Jim] Folsom will be a much more visible player in day-to-day politics than was his predecessor, Lucy Baxley,” Lanoue said. “The new lieutenant governor will be positioning himself for a run at the top job in 2010. On the Republican side, Attorney General Troy King will attempt to keep his own name in the news for the same reasons.”
Bush’s approval rises
President Bush’s approval rate will rise as he orders a decrease of troops in Iraq, Lanoue predicts.
“By mid-2007, President Bush will start seriously considering, and possibly implementing, a reduction of U.S. ground forces in Iraq. This, combined with public acknowledgment of a stronger economy, will improve Bush’s job approval ratings, and they will generally exceed 40 percent by late 2007,” he said.
Good relations with Congress early in the year will also help his ratings, but that bipartisan concord will not last long.
http://www.sandmountainreporter.com/story.lasso?ewcd=94dd684276bc503e&page=all
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