Local scientists say Gore accurate

Local scientists say Gore accurate
By BEN SHOUSEbshouse@argusleader.comPublished: January 21, 2007Al Gore is set to touch down Tuesday in Sioux Falls, likely as an Oscar nominee.
His documentary, "An Inconvenient Truth," is expected to get an Academy Award nod in the morning for best documentary. That would be more evidence of a growing focus on climate change, the former vice president's signature issue.
As Gore is speaking to almost 4,000 people at Augustana College's Elmen Center, President Bush also is expected to talk about global warming during his State of the Union address.
Gore, who beat Bush in the 2000 presidential popular vote but lost the election, lately has been accused of hyping the climate threat. Yet much of the science he relies on is uncontroversial, and Gore plans to shift his focus toward solutions Tuesday.
"Unfortunately, I think the public views a lot of this politically. They view a lot of what is said about this based on people's politics rather than what the science is," said state climatologist Dennis Todey in Brookings.
For one thing, few climatologists dispute that the planet is getting warmer on average and that carbon dioxide released by the burning of fossil fuels is at least partly responsible, he said.
However, "there is still a huge amount of uncertainty as to how this will all play out."
Gore's critics have accused him of glossing over that uncertainty and prescribing expensive fixes. Most recently, an opinion piece in Thursday's Wall Street Journal called his climate solutions "the costliest political project ever" and ascribed a $553 trillion price tag to them.
In his Tuesday evening Boe Forum speech, titled "Thinking Green: Economic Strategy for the 21st Century," Gore almost surely will argue the contrary - that ignoring the problem poses a far greater economic danger.
The core of Gore's scientific message is accurate, says ecologist Carter Johnson of South Dakota State University, who works with computer models of the climate in forecasting its effect on wetlands.
He has seen Gore's movie and said it simplifies the science to reach a general audience but does not stretch the truth.
"I wouldn't say exaggeration," Johnson said. "People start to glaze over if you go into numbers and details."
Gore is venturing into murkier territory by addressing economics, but Johnson said it's important he do so.
"Everybody responds to pocketbook issues, and only a certain portion of people respond to ecological, environmental issues. So I suppose he's going to have everybody's attention if he starts talking about money."
Todey says the uncertainty about local effects has been another barrier to public awareness of climate change.
In South Dakota, some have predicted drought will become more common, though Todey said that is highly uncertain.
Johnson's research projects that many key wetlands in South Dakota could become too dry for duck nesting, which would effect duck populations across North America. He said snowpack in the Missouri River basin also probably will decline, which would mean more low levels on Lake Oahe.
Ironically, another potential barrier to public awareness of climate change is Gore's own media policy for Tuesday's appearance. A spokeswoman said all reporters will be asked to leave after the first five minutes of his speech.
The Wall Street Journal piece said Gore recently canceled an interview with Denmark's largest newspaper at the last minute. But his speech Monday in Boise, Idaho, while closed to television cameras, is open to reporters, said Kathleen Craven at Boise State University.
Reach Ben Shouse at 331-2318.
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