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Sunday, January 21, 2007

AND HERE IS THE FORECAST..NO SNOW IN SCOTLAND BY 2087

AND HERE IS THE FORECAST..NO SNOW IN SCOTLAND BY 2087
THE gales, blizzards and driving rain of the past week don't seem much like global warming. But experts say Scotland could be snow-free in 80 years. Grace Macaskill reveals how our vanishing snowline spells disaster for millions.Grace MacaskillTHE weather may be frightening with gale force winds, floods and white-out blizzards.
But experts predict global warming means Scotland could be snow free in 80 years.
In the week that US vice president Al Gore visited Scotland to warn of a manmade catastrophe, Scottish experts have found compelling evidence we are in the firing line of major climate change.
And the effects are devastating.
Winter sports and snowcapped mountains will disappear. Much of our wildlife and flowers will be wiped out and millions will be at risk from flooding.
The Met Office say temperatures in Scotland will rise by three degrees Celsius in the next 100 years - leading to wetter winters and hotter summers.
And the effects are already here. Despite last week's storms, snow on our mountains is disappearing rapidly.
The amount on the Cairngorms has dropped by 90 per cent since 1983.
The River Teith near Callendar has risen by 90 per cent while the Tay and Tweed are 60 per cent higher than 40 years ago.
Dr Chris Spray, director of environmental science for the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, said: "People have to realise it's an issue that is having an affect now.
"It's not just something for our great grandchildren to worry about, it's an issue that is already here."
Temperatures have risen dramatically since Met Office records started in 1914 - and the last five summers have been the hottest recorded in Scotland.
Adam Watson, of the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology at Banchory in Aberdeenshire, has been studying the mountains for 30 years.
He said: "The best way to measure climate change is to look at the number of snow patches on the mountains in July every year. In 1983 there were 3000 patches in the Cairngorms. Last year there were 300. In 2003 there were 40.
"The first time on record Scotland was completely snow free was in 1933. But over the last 50 years it has become more frequent, with snow-free periods in 1959, 1996 and 2003.
"This is a clear sign that the planet is getting hotter and global warming is having a real impact on Scotland."
Willy Anderson, of Cairngorms Mountain Rescue Team, has been working on the country's largest mountain range since 1978. He said: "In recent years, snowfall disappears more quickly because the temperature rises faster.
"We used to have a covering from November until Easter but there is no longer any perma-frost on the ground.
"Many businesses such as ski resorts rely on the snow for their livelihoods and their income is decreasing all the time."
Fiona Milligan of Cairngorm Mountain, which runs tourist attractions at the range, said: "In 80 years time we are looking at the prospect of having very little snow and attractions which rely on snow have to survive by diversifying."
Dr Spray added: "Nature has always experienced change. At one time lynx roamed Scotland and long before that hippos could be found. But recent changes have all happened so quickly.
"Since 1961 the average temperature in Scotland has gone up by one degree.
"The height of rivers has risen in the winter by as much as 90 per cent, with the Tay and Tweed up by 60 per cent.
"Many effects of these changes, such as more extreme floods, are 'in the post'. They will happen and we should prepare for them. We should act now to stop the situation getting worse.
"All of us can play our part now by making better choices about how we use energy, transport and resources."
But more of this
WINTERS are getting warmer and wetter - and Scotland will struggle with gale-force winds and flash flooding.
This month is set to be the warmest January on record but rain and wind has crippled the transport network, left countless homes without power and destroyed many flood barriers.
River levels are continually rising due to the constant rain. Experts have recorded a 90 per cent rise in the Teith, near Callander, Perthshire, and 60 per cent in the Tay and the Tweed. Annual rainfall is expected to rise by as much as 10 per cent by 2050.
Analysts predict rain in the east coast of Scotland will increase by up to 30 per cent by 2080.
Around 170,000 homes are already at risk from flooding - which would result in insurance payouts of £50million.
Dr Richard Dixon, head of policy for WWF Scotland, said: "Flash flooding could become a regular experience."
And less of these
GLOBAL warming could wipe out some of our best-loved animals and plants.
Experts have already seen falling numbers of birds such as the snow bunting and capercaillie.
The mountain hare and Arctic plant species are also at risk.
Numbers of the mountain blackbird dropped by almost 60 per cent between 1990 and 1999.
The snow bunting makes its home mainly in the Cairngorms, where it can nest at the edge of snowfields. Without snow, it could disappear by 2050.
The mountain ringlet butterfly is migrating north and uphill to escape the warmth. It will soon run out of land.
Even the mountain hare is at peril. The hare's coat turns white in winter as camouflage but, without snow, it will be highly visible to predators.
Plants such as the Scots primrose and lichens are at risk as the climate drives them northwards.
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