Southern charmer smoothes way for first-round upsets
Southern charmer smoothes way for first-round upsetsJohn Edwards could cause Hillary Clinton a lot of trouble. It is still hard to see the former candidate for the vice-presidency as a serious contender for the Democratic Party’s presidential ticket next year. He is still open to the charges that dogged him in 2004: inexperienced from his short time in the Senate; ignorant of foreign affairs; lacking guiding ideological passions; and too good-looking to be taken seriously in politics.
But Edwards has spent the past three years tramping around Iowa, the state that will kick off next year’s fight for the Democratic candidacy. He is in the lead in polls there — and has a powerful appeal to the South — which may not ultimately threaten the Clinton political machine, but could give it a bumpy start.
The numbers that have grabbed the tipsters’ attention come from a series of polls taken since October. In a Zogby poll, published last week, Edwards was the preferred candidate of 27 per cent of those questioned, ahead of Barack Obama at 17 per cent, and Clinton and Tom Vilsack, Iowa’s two-term Governor, at 16 per cent. A poll taken last month put him on 36 per cent.
Edwards made his mark in the Iowa caucuses in 2004. He came in behind John Kerry by 32 per cent to 38 per cent, and was seen as too fresh-faced (he is now 53), but he found a warm audience for his handcrafted familiarity.
A trial lawyer, who has specialised in personal injury cases, Edwards has a gift for bringing intimacy to the big, bald, themes of domestic policy.
Where most politicians spin a menacing sermon from taxes, healthcare and schools, Edwards turns them into a tale of a normal American mom sitting at her kitchen table at night, opening letters that she can’t deal with.
You can see how it would engage and persuade a jury. In the schoolrooms and town halls where the Iowa caucuses are fought and decided, it gave Edwards the purchase that more experienced rivals lacked.
He has shown himself to be entirely conscious of his appeal, joking to a sophisticated audience in Washington: “I know what you’re thinking — he’s even more good-looking in real life than he is on TV”, a quip that takes some assurance to deliver.
But his weaknesses were exposed painfully at the 2004 Democratic Convention, when he spoke too fast, lost his best lines in the applause and failed to persuade a television audience of millions that he had a vision of where the United States should go.
Still, in the jostling of the next year, he has some advantages. A South Carolinian by birth, he will have an edge in that state’s primary contest, the fourth hurdle.
One of the unknown questions of this race is how the conservatism of the South, still a factor even if it is much changed in the past 40 years, will sift through the front-runners. The attempts of Clinton to be the first woman president and Obama to be the first black president are untested. If conservative reflexes run as deep as many suspect, Edwards will benefit.
He may, too, be helped by the insertion of Nevada caucuses as the second stage of the contest. The Western state is expected to give Obama and Clinton a rougher time, although all three are former lawyers and have been criticised by analysts for being too urban and unappealing to a Western audience.
These small advantages of position may count for nothing against the huge money-raising appeal of the Clinton machine and the Obama charisma. But they have the ability to upset those two candidates who now appear to be far in the lead.
(1/23/2007) - By Bronwen Maddox, TimesOnline.com
BACK TO ZOGBY IN THE MEDIA
http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=14293
But Edwards has spent the past three years tramping around Iowa, the state that will kick off next year’s fight for the Democratic candidacy. He is in the lead in polls there — and has a powerful appeal to the South — which may not ultimately threaten the Clinton political machine, but could give it a bumpy start.
The numbers that have grabbed the tipsters’ attention come from a series of polls taken since October. In a Zogby poll, published last week, Edwards was the preferred candidate of 27 per cent of those questioned, ahead of Barack Obama at 17 per cent, and Clinton and Tom Vilsack, Iowa’s two-term Governor, at 16 per cent. A poll taken last month put him on 36 per cent.
Edwards made his mark in the Iowa caucuses in 2004. He came in behind John Kerry by 32 per cent to 38 per cent, and was seen as too fresh-faced (he is now 53), but he found a warm audience for his handcrafted familiarity.
A trial lawyer, who has specialised in personal injury cases, Edwards has a gift for bringing intimacy to the big, bald, themes of domestic policy.
Where most politicians spin a menacing sermon from taxes, healthcare and schools, Edwards turns them into a tale of a normal American mom sitting at her kitchen table at night, opening letters that she can’t deal with.
You can see how it would engage and persuade a jury. In the schoolrooms and town halls where the Iowa caucuses are fought and decided, it gave Edwards the purchase that more experienced rivals lacked.
He has shown himself to be entirely conscious of his appeal, joking to a sophisticated audience in Washington: “I know what you’re thinking — he’s even more good-looking in real life than he is on TV”, a quip that takes some assurance to deliver.
But his weaknesses were exposed painfully at the 2004 Democratic Convention, when he spoke too fast, lost his best lines in the applause and failed to persuade a television audience of millions that he had a vision of where the United States should go.
Still, in the jostling of the next year, he has some advantages. A South Carolinian by birth, he will have an edge in that state’s primary contest, the fourth hurdle.
One of the unknown questions of this race is how the conservatism of the South, still a factor even if it is much changed in the past 40 years, will sift through the front-runners. The attempts of Clinton to be the first woman president and Obama to be the first black president are untested. If conservative reflexes run as deep as many suspect, Edwards will benefit.
He may, too, be helped by the insertion of Nevada caucuses as the second stage of the contest. The Western state is expected to give Obama and Clinton a rougher time, although all three are former lawyers and have been criticised by analysts for being too urban and unappealing to a Western audience.
These small advantages of position may count for nothing against the huge money-raising appeal of the Clinton machine and the Obama charisma. But they have the ability to upset those two candidates who now appear to be far in the lead.
(1/23/2007) - By Bronwen Maddox, TimesOnline.com
BACK TO ZOGBY IN THE MEDIA
http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=14293
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