Edwards and Giuliani lead way in Iowa race
Edwards and Giuliani lead way in Iowa race
Mark TranThursday January 25, 2007Guardian Unlimited
Senator John Edwards leads his fellow Democrats in the Iowa caucus - the first test in the US presidential race - while Rudolph Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner, a poll revealed today.According to the Real Clear Politics blog, Mr Edwards, John Kerry's running mate in the 2004 White House election, is comfortably in front with 25% of the vote.
Barack Obama, the rising star of the Democratic party, has 17% and is followed by Tom Vilsack, the state's governor until last week (16%), and Hillary Clinton (15%).
In the Republican camp, Mr Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, holds a 25%-21% lead over Senator John McCain. Other polls indicate that Mr McCain is suffering from his strong support for military escalation in Iraq. Political pollster Rasmussen Reports this week said Mr McCain would be beaten by Mr Obama or Mr Edwards should he face either of them in a presidential vote. Until now, he would have beaten anyone fielded by the Democrats.
One high-profile Democrat, however, will not be running. Mr Kerry, who narrowly lost the 2004 presidential race, yesterday announced from the floor of the Senate that he would not run again.
"This isn't the time for me to mount a presidential campaign," he said. "It is the time to put my energy to work as part of the majority in the Senate to do all I can to end this war."
While these are still early days - the next presidential vote is not until early November 2008 - the race has effectively started. Candidates are raising money and manoeuvring for party support, and poll numbers are taking on a growing significance.
The Iowa caucus - a series of neighbourhood meetings rather than the casting of votes at a ballot as in a primary - will take place in January. Traditionally, the candidates then move on to the New Hampshire primary in early February.
But the nominating process may not follow the usual pattern next year. As many as four big states - California, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey - are seeking to move their primary dates ahead of New Hampshire's.
That would make the contest even more front-loaded than ever, barely giving candidates time to draw breath from early contests in relatively small states before they move to a vastly expanded nationwide battlefield stretching from coast to coast.
However, New Hampshire has made it clear that it will move its primary to even before January 1 to safeguard its prized status in the presidential election calendar.
More than local pride is at stake because the change of primary dates has important political implications.
It would mean that early setbacks in Iowa and New Hampshire could be swiftly overturned in the new "super Tuesday", where plenty of delegates are up for grabs.
Early contests in New Jersey and California could benefit Mr Giuliani, a liberal Republican who favours gun control and abortion rights, because he is less likely to do well in Republican contests in Iowa and South Carolina in January.
Such calculations aside, moving big contests to the early part of the campaign will put even more pressure on candidates to raise money early on and will make it harder for the likes of Mr Vilsack to create upsets.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,,1998473,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=12
Mark TranThursday January 25, 2007Guardian Unlimited
Senator John Edwards leads his fellow Democrats in the Iowa caucus - the first test in the US presidential race - while Rudolph Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner, a poll revealed today.According to the Real Clear Politics blog, Mr Edwards, John Kerry's running mate in the 2004 White House election, is comfortably in front with 25% of the vote.
Barack Obama, the rising star of the Democratic party, has 17% and is followed by Tom Vilsack, the state's governor until last week (16%), and Hillary Clinton (15%).
In the Republican camp, Mr Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, holds a 25%-21% lead over Senator John McCain. Other polls indicate that Mr McCain is suffering from his strong support for military escalation in Iraq. Political pollster Rasmussen Reports this week said Mr McCain would be beaten by Mr Obama or Mr Edwards should he face either of them in a presidential vote. Until now, he would have beaten anyone fielded by the Democrats.
One high-profile Democrat, however, will not be running. Mr Kerry, who narrowly lost the 2004 presidential race, yesterday announced from the floor of the Senate that he would not run again.
"This isn't the time for me to mount a presidential campaign," he said. "It is the time to put my energy to work as part of the majority in the Senate to do all I can to end this war."
While these are still early days - the next presidential vote is not until early November 2008 - the race has effectively started. Candidates are raising money and manoeuvring for party support, and poll numbers are taking on a growing significance.
The Iowa caucus - a series of neighbourhood meetings rather than the casting of votes at a ballot as in a primary - will take place in January. Traditionally, the candidates then move on to the New Hampshire primary in early February.
But the nominating process may not follow the usual pattern next year. As many as four big states - California, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey - are seeking to move their primary dates ahead of New Hampshire's.
That would make the contest even more front-loaded than ever, barely giving candidates time to draw breath from early contests in relatively small states before they move to a vastly expanded nationwide battlefield stretching from coast to coast.
However, New Hampshire has made it clear that it will move its primary to even before January 1 to safeguard its prized status in the presidential election calendar.
More than local pride is at stake because the change of primary dates has important political implications.
It would mean that early setbacks in Iowa and New Hampshire could be swiftly overturned in the new "super Tuesday", where plenty of delegates are up for grabs.
Early contests in New Jersey and California could benefit Mr Giuliani, a liberal Republican who favours gun control and abortion rights, because he is less likely to do well in Republican contests in Iowa and South Carolina in January.
Such calculations aside, moving big contests to the early part of the campaign will put even more pressure on candidates to raise money early on and will make it harder for the likes of Mr Vilsack to create upsets.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,,1998473,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=12
posted by presgore19 at 4:39 AM
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